Heat Rising

“I think people are trying to pick on Miami right now instead of opening their eyes to just how great they are.”

-Jeff Van Gundy

It has become sort of fashionable to question how good the Heat will be this year. Of the twenty five experts on ESPN.com twelve picked the Heat to win the championship, twelve picked the Lakers, and one picked the Celtics. On SI.com only out of the six experts and one out the six of the anonymous scouts picked the Heat to win it all. It gets worse for the Heat on NBA.com where only two out of eleven experts pick them and ten out of thirty general managers in the annual poll picked them (nineteen picked the Lakers).

So out of 78 respected opinions, 24 or 31% believe the Heat will win the NBA championship. In my opinion that is too low and not only do I predict the Heat to win the title, I think they have a 50/50 chance of getting 73 wins. Here are the reasons why the Heat can break the ’96 Bulls’ record:


Reason #1: Have you seen some of the win-loss records this decade?

Two seasons ago the Cleveland LeBrons won 66 games and lost their final game in overtime against a lottery bound Sixers team without LeBron who was resting for the playoffs. It’s safe to say that Cleveland would have had 67 wins if LeBron played the final game. LeBron turned 24 that season and will turn 26 this season, so he will still be comfortably within his prime. The second and third best players on that Cleveland team were Mo Williams and Ilguaskas, and comparing them to Wade and Bosh is like comparing Eddy Curry (once named Baby Shaq when he actually played) to Shaq. The rest of the rotation was Delonte West, Varejao, Ben Wallace, Wally’s World, and Sasha Pavlovic. Not exactly world beaters. The Heat roster should be at least six wins better than the Cleveland roster from two years ago.

Three seasons ago the Boston Celtics won 66 games after acquiring two All Stars during the offseason. Unlike the big three in Miami this year, all of the Celtics stars were past their prime. They did also have a budding Rajon Rondo, who was one the best defensive point guards in basketball (and now is the best defensive point guard), and Kedrick Perkins who can single cover almost anyone in the post. As good as Rondo is now, he still was just a role player back then and only averaged 10 points, 5 assists, and 4 rebounds in 30 minutes per game. His Player Efficiency Rating was 15.1 or only .5 more than Udonis Haslem’s PER last year. That Celtics team did not have a deep roster and Eddie House played 19 minutes per game, which is something he can do for this current Heat team. With three Superstars in their prime who are all better than their Celtics counterparts in their primes (LeBron vs. KG; Wade vs. Pierce; and Bosh vs. Allen), I think the Heat should be at least six wins better.

Four seasons ago the Dallas Mavericks won 67 games (and also lost in the first round of the playoffs). After Dirk Nowitzki the second and third best players on the team were Josh Howard and Jason Terry. Give me LeBron over Dirk, Wade over Howard, and Bosh over Jason Terry. The difference between those trios should be at least five wins. That Mavericks team was pretty deep and also had a productive Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse but even if you take the average PER of the team’s best five players (adding Haslem and Miller/Chalmers) the Heat average 20.9 per player and the Mavs averaged 19.9. Over a course of a full season that is probably an additional 2.5 wins. Harris, Stackhouse, and Howard all missed 25 games so if the Heat stay healthier, 2.5 wins will be a very conservative estimate. Also factor in that the Mavs best five of Harris, Terry, Stackhouse, Howard, and Dirk never played together and the Heat have an even bigger edge over a team that won 67 games four seasons ago.

Reason #2: They Are Really Good and Compare Favorably to ’96 Bulls

John Hollinger has written extensively about LeBron and how he compares to MJ, but it bears repeating here. LeBron has the second highest career PER and during the past two seasons he has posted the fourth and ninth best PER seasons with only MJ and Wilt Chamberlain having better seasons. Those MJ seasons were early in MJ's career during 80s and the first threepeat not during the second threepeat. LeBron at 26 has a significant (not huge and not slight) edge over Michael Jordan at 33.

Not only do the Heat have the edge at first banana, they have an even greater edge at second and third banana. Last year Dwayne Wade had a PER of 28 and is projected to have a PER of 26.3. During the Bulls historic run in 1996 Scottie Pippen had a PER of 21 and never had a PER higher than 23 in any season. That is a huge edge to Dwayne Wade even if you consider that PER hurts Pippen value because it does not do the greatest job of factoring in locked down defense. Rounding out Miami’s Big Three is Chris Bosh who had a PER of 25.1 last year (third in the league behind LeBron and Wade) and is projected to have a PER of 23.9. When compared to Toni Kukoc, who had a very good PER of 20.4 that year but only played 26 minutes per game, Bosh gives the Heat another huge advantage.

The ’96 Bulls also had great role players like Dennis Rodman, the best pound for pound rebounder of all time and all world defender, Steve Kerr who is the career leader in three point percentage, and Ron Harper. So the question is whether the gap between guys like Rodman, Kerr, and Harper compared to Haslem, Miller, and Chalmers is greater than LeBron, Wade, and Bosh compared to MJ, Pippen, and Kukoc. I don’t think it is especially considering that LeBron, Wade, and Bosh will probably play more minutes on the court together than the 26 minutes Kukoc averaged.

Reason #3: The Potential Chemistry Problems Are Overrated

The chemistry argument is almost two pronged. The main argument is that other than Wade and Haslem, the entire team is new and will have problems adjusting to each other. A subsidiary or second argument is that egos will get in the way and will be especially problematic during crunch time.

Overlooking the time LeBron, Wade, and Bosh have played and practice together for team USA, other teams have changed dramatically and still won a lot of games together. The only players on the ’96 Bulls that were also on the ’93 championship team were Jordan and Pippen. Sure a lot of the ’96 Bulls were also on the ’95 team and they got to see Michael Jordan play almost 1100 minutes for the team during the season and postseason, but how much did playing with a rusty Michael Jordan help? How do we know that is more important than training camp or Team USA? The most common starting lineup for the ‘95 Bulls was BJ Armstrong, Ron Harper, Scottie Pippen, Toni Kukoc, and Will Perdue. The ’96 Bulls started Harper, Jordan, Pippen, Rodman, and Luc Longley. That is a change at three out of five starting spots and if Chalmers starts then the Heat will be starting only two new guys, Bosh and Wade.

The ’08 Celtics won 66 games with a team that was drastically different as well. Of their top eight guys minutes players only Pierce, Perkins, and Rondo also were in the top eight the year before in 2007. Wade, Chalmers, and Haslem were in the top eight in minutes last year and should be this year as well, so both the ’08 Celtics and this year’s Heat team are adding five players to their eight man rotation. The 2007 Mavericks were virtually the same from the year except for getting rid of Michael Finley under the “Alan Houston”rule (and the Knicks released Jerome Williams rather than Alan Houston under the “Alan Houston” rule). Finley did have the second most minutes for the team the year before so replacing was a significant change. Good teams make changes all the time.

Another part of the supposed chemistry problem is that LeBron and Wade’s egos will hurt them because their egos require that they be the ones to take the last “shot.” First LeBron and Wade are two of the most unselfish players in the NBA. Wade was the sixth man on the 2008 Olympic Gold Medal game and gladly did the dirty work. Jordan and Pippen were considered the two best perimeter players in the NBA and shared the ball just fine. Pippen was the point forward and a willing passer but MJ still averaged 5.3 assists per game over his career. LeBron will be Pippen/Magic and Wade will be the primary scorer. Before Michael Jordan came along, the guys like Magic and Bird were the top dogs not the scorers like George Gervin and Bernard King.

Second for last “shot” problems, the Heat will have to be in some close games instead of mostly blow outs. If they are in a close game, it is doubtful that this will be an issue because LeBron James is by far the best clutch player in the NBA according to 82games.com. So whether LeBron or Wade is dunking it at the end or Bosh is nailing a 15 footer it does not matter as long as they win (and they will win a lot). Perhaps Wade takes the last “shot” at the end of the quarters more often but LeBron should be primary creator and I don’t think egos and roles will be a problem.

Reason #4: Luck and Motivation

John Hollinger has predicted that the Heat will win 68 games this year. The ’96 Bulls were expected to win 70 games according to basketball-reference.com’s expected won-loss record (done post facto). Somewhere along the way, the Bulls won two games more than they should have. If Hollinger’s PER projections are slightly off then the Heat could be expected to win 70 games and with a little extra luck or motivation should win those two extra games like the Bulls did. During LeBron’s seven year career his teams have done better than their expected won loss records five out of seven times and finished an average of 1.5 wins better than their expected won-loss records. The sample size is small and there is no data to explain it but LeBron’s teams usually do better than the stats would suggest.

This year LeBron should be more motivated to prove the critics wrong and should be able to single-handedly turn an expected loss into a win. Playing in the East means that LeBron and the Heat will play 40 out of 82 games against the Knicks, Wizards, Bobcats, Sixers, Nets, Pacers, Pistons, Raptors, Cavs, Kings, Warriors, Clipper, and Timberwolves. Of those teams, only the Knicks, Bobcats, and Clippers have a realistic shot of winning 41 games but more than likely all of those teams will finish under .500. That is a lot of games against potentially bad games where LeBron or Wade or even Bosh can win the game by dominating for a half a quarter. More games against bad teams means there is a greater chance of blow outs, which means more rest for the Big Three making them fresher for the top teams.

With over two thirds of the mainstream experts picking against them, this team should be really motivated. LeBron is inarguably the best player in the NBA, Wade is arguably the second best player, and Bosh is right near the top ten. On paper they should be able to crush most teams so it is puzzling to see so many experts not pick them to win the championship. The championship run starts on April 17th (or maybe the 16th if their first game is scheduled for Saturday) but the race to 73 starts today and it should be more interesting than many people are predicting.